Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
