A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
